As the trade war between China and the USA rages on, a survey of American firms operating in China just published says that business confidence in the future has weakened considerably, but that China remains that most tantalising of markets.
随着中美贸易战的肆虐，刚刚发布的一项针对在中国经营的美国公司的调查显示，对未来的商业信心已经大大减弱，但中国仍然是最诱人的市场。
Conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, the 2019 China Business Report report is based on the results of the Chamber’s annual China Business Climate Survey, a survey of US business in China dating back to 1999. Reflecting views and insights of member companies based on their considerable experience doing business in the China market, some 333 AmCham Shanghai members participated in the 2019 survey.
由上海美国商会进行的《2019年中国商业报告》报告基于商会年度中国商业环境调查的结果，该调查可以追溯到1999年，对美国在中国的商业进行调查。 大约333名AmCham上海成员参加了2019年的调查，反映了成员公司基于在中国市场开展业务的丰富经验的观点和见解。
First up, the numbers, as they relate to US business performance in China in 2018, among members of the American Chamber of Commerce
首先，这些数字与2018年美国在中国的商业业绩有关，在美国商会成员中
that participated in the Survey.
参与调查的。
- 51 percent of companies reported a decrease in revenues as a result of trade war tariffs.
- 27.1 percent of companies anticipate lower revenues.
- 5-year optimism dropped by one fifth to 61.4 percent, against historical rates of 80-90 percent.
- Over the next 3-5 years, 57.8 percent of AmCham members rated an economic slowdown as their biggest challenge, with US-China tensions a close second (52.7 percent).
- 17 percent of companies think the current US-China trade tensions will continue indefinitely.
- 75 percent of companies do not support the retaliatory use of tariffs to achieve the Trump administration’s trade goals.
- 53 percent of companies would prefer to use expanded government dialogue and multilateral pressure (e.g. working alongside the EU) to help the US achieve its trade and investment objectives with China.
- As a result of the tariffs, 32.3 percent of companies reported delaying investment in China, while another 21.1 percent are reducing investment.
As for outcomes of the trade war which the survey participants would most like to see, tops by a long way were improved market access and intellectual property protection.
至于调查参与者最希望看到的贸易战的结果，最重要的是市场准入和知识产权保护的改善。
Away from the trade war, the survey also revealed interesting insights in other areas that suggest all is not doom and gloom. Overall, 76.8 percent of companies reported profits, while 50.5 percent of companies expect revenues to beat their 2018 numbers.
除了贸易战之外，该调查还揭示了其他领域的有趣见解，这些见解表明并非一切都是厄运和忧郁。 总体而言，76.8%的公司报告了利润，而50.5%的公司预计收入将超过2018年的数字。
The operational environment in China is also pointed out for making progress. In particular, the ongoing anti-corruption campaign led to a 20 percentage-point drop in the number of companies reporting such a hindrance (down to 48.6 percent).
中国的运营环境也被指出取得了进展。 特别是，正在进行的反腐败运动导致报告此类障碍的公司数量下降了20个百分点（降至48.6%）。
On the negative side, almost 70 percent of the 333 respondents believe their Chinese competitors to be faster at bringing products to market. As to why, the report says, “One reason may be that decisions in Chinese firms tend to be less consensus-based. But a lack of understanding of the Chinese market at Western companies’ headquarters is also a contributory factor. … with decisions slowed by executives unwilling to cede decision-making authority to in-country managers”.
在消极方面，在333名受访者中，近70%的人认为他们的中国竞争对手在将产品推向市场方面更快。 至于原因，报告说：“一个原因可能是中国公司的决策往往不太基于共识。 但西方公司总部对中国市场缺乏了解也是一个促成因素。……高管们不愿意将决策权让给国内经理，从而减缓了决策速度。”
By way of analysis, it is worth noting that 81 percent of Chamber member companies have had a physical presence in China for more than 10 years (35 percent for more than 20 years). As such, the overwhelming majority of AmCham’s members have sufficient experience in China to see the trade war for what it is. Business, after all, will rarely allow politics to interfere in the process of returning profits.
通过分析，值得注意的是，81%的商会成员公司在中国实际存在超过10年（35%超过20年）。 因此，绝大多数AmCham成员在中国有足够的经验来看待贸易战的本意。 毕竟，商业很少允许政治干涉利润返还的过程。
Conducted between 27 June and 25 July, 2019, the China Business Climate Survey comprised questions intended to measure trends in company performance, challenges and investment, as well as those relating to trade policy, tariffs and HR numbers.
中国商业环境调查于2019年6月27日至7月25日进行，包括旨在衡量公司业绩、挑战和投资趋势的问题，以及与贸易政策、关税和人力资源数字有关的问题。
The Survey was released 1 day before China and the US agreed to their restarting of talks during the G20 meeting, 7 weeks after the US’s raising of tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese exports.
该调查是在中国和美国同意在20国集团会议上重新开始谈判的前一天发布的，在美国将2000亿美元中国出口的关税提高到25%的7周后。
