China’s economy grew 4.5 percent in the third quarter, up from 4.3 percent in the second, yet investment in fixed assets fell 7.2 percent over the first nine months and retail sales rose just 1.1 percent in September.
中国经济第三季度增长4.5%，高于第二季度的4.3%，但前三季度固定资产投资下降7.2%，9月消费品零售额仅增长1.1%。
Exports, measured in yuan, rose 22 percent in the quarter and passed ¥8 trillion for the first time.
以人民币计，第三季度出口增长22%，首次突破8万亿元。
In September the monthly trade surplus reached US$133.5 billion, the second-highest on record, and exports of integrated circuits nearly doubled over the first nine months.
9月单月贸易顺差达1335亿美元，为有记录以来第二高；前三季度集成电路出口增长近一倍。
Mark Kruger, writing for Yicai on 29 October, asks whether the Chinese economy is firing on just one cylinder. His answer is “Not entirely, but one cylinder is doing far more than its share of the work.” By his calculation net exports supplied 1.8 percentage points, or 39 percent, of third-quarter growth, against 48 percent from consumption and 13 percent from investment. The National Bureau of Statistics puts the nine-month contribution of net exports at 1.2 percentage points, against 2.1 for consumption and 1.3 for investment.
马克·克鲁格（Mark Kruger）10月29日在第一财经撰文，探讨中国经济是否只靠一个“气缸”在运转。他的回答是“并非完全如此，但有一个气缸承担的工作远超其应有的份额”。据他测算，第三季度净出口拉动增长1.8个百分点，占39%，消费占48%，投资占13%。国家统计局的数据显示，前三季度净出口拉动经济增长1.2个百分点，消费为2.1个百分点，资本形成为1.3个百分点。
What Is Holding Back the Home Market
拖累国内市场的因素
Property is the weakest link. Real estate investment fell 20.6 percent in the first nine months, against 18.0 percent in the first half, and the floor area of commercial housing sold fell 13.2 percent. Kruger sees one bright spot, with new-home prices in first-tier cities about 1 percent higher in September than in January, while second-tier cities were 1 percent lower and third-tier cities 2 percent lower.
房地产是最薄弱的一环。前三季度房地产开发投资下降20.6%，上半年为下降18.0%；商品房销售面积下降13.2%。克鲁格看到一处亮点：一线城市新房价格9月比1月高约1%，二线城市低1%，三线城市低2%。
Beijing has answered on two fronts. Reforms announced on 28 August shift sales towards completed homes and place each project’s cash under a single lead bank to protect buyers’ deposits. From 1 October a notice from the finance ministry, central bank and financial regulator subsidises mortgage interest by 1 percentage point a year for up to five years on first-home loans of up to ¥1 million, for homes of up to 120 square metres and ¥1.5 million. It runs on trial for a year and is the first time the central government has paid towards commercial mortgages directly; Kruger estimates it cuts interest costs by about a third.
北京从两方面作出回应。8月28日公布的改革措施推动销售转向现房，并将每个项目的资金置于单一牵头银行监管之下，以保护购房者的定金。10月1日起，财政部、中国人民银行和金融监管总局联合通知的房贷贴息政策开始实施：对首套住房商业性个人住房贷款，最高100万元部分每年贴息1个百分点，最长5年，适用于面积不超过120平方米、价格不超过150万元的住房。该政策暂定实施一年，也是中央财政首次直接为商业性个人住房贷款贴息；克鲁格估计，这可使利息成本降低约三分之一。
Public money is tight as well. Government revenue grew 5.7 percent in the first eight months but spending only 1.2 percent, and spending by local governments just 0.3 percent. Kruger puts the deficit at ¥2.5 trillion for the period against ¥3.1 trillion a year earlier, a drag of about 0.7 percent of GDP at annual rates, and notes that credit to local governments has risen from about 20 percent of GDP before the pandemic to about twice that. Infrastructure investment fell 4.2 percent and manufacturing investment 2.1 percent, the latter partly, he argues, because the campaign against “involution-style” competition has pushed steel, coal, cement, solar, battery and electric vehicle makers towards discipline over expansion.
财政也趋紧。前8个月全国一般公共预算收入增长5.7%，支出仅增长1.2%，其中地方支出只增长0.3%。克鲁格估算，同期赤字为2.5万亿元，去年同期为3.1万亿元，按年率计算拖累GDP约0.7个百分点；他还指出，对地方政府的信贷已从疫情前约占GDP的20%升至约两倍。前三季度基础设施投资下降4.2%，制造业投资下降2.1%，他认为后者部分源于反“内卷式”竞争行动，促使钢铁、煤炭、水泥、光伏、电池和电动汽车企业转向产能纪律而非扩张。
Consumers are not spared. Kruger attributes much of this year’s weak retail growth to cars; with trade-in subsidies scaled back and purchase-tax exemptions for new energy vehicles reduced, the value of auto sales is down 18 percent, while spending outside autos grows at close to 4 percent. Incomes are tilting too, with average per capita disposable income up 5.3 percent in the first nine months against 4.6 percent for the median, leaving the average at about 1.21 times the median, against about 1.15 before the pandemic.
消费者也未能幸免。克鲁格认为，今年零售增长疲弱，很大程度上源于汽车；以旧换新补贴力度减弱，新能源汽车购置税优惠缩减，汽车销售额下降18%，而汽车以外的零售额同比增长接近4%。收入分配也在倾斜：前三季度全国居民人均可支配收入增长5.3%，中位数增长4.6%，均值约为中位数的1.21倍，疫情前约为1.15倍。
Chips, Cars and Calmer Trade Ties
芯片、汽车与趋稳的贸易关系
In dollar terms exports and imports each grew by just under 30 percent in the third quarter, Kruger finds, with trade in integrated circuits and computing equipment doubling on the back of the AI investment boom. Strip those out and exports still grew 19 percent and imports 12 percent. Customs figures for the first nine months add that exports of electric vehicles rose 72.3 percent and lithium batteries 36.4 percent.
克鲁格发现，第三季度以美元计，出口和进口同比均增长近30%，集成电路和计算设备贸易翻番，背后是人工智能投资热潮。剔除这些产品，出口仍增长19%，进口增长12%。海关数据还显示，前三季度电动汽车出口增长72.3%，锂电池出口增长36.4%。
The politics have calmed. Xi Jinping visited Washington for three days in September, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Busan trade truce, due to expire on 10 November, now runs to 10 January 2027. Outcomes also included a US–China Board of Trade and a channel for AI incidents, and the two presidents are expected to meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November and the G20 summit in Miami in December.
贸易政治趋于缓和。习近平9月赴华盛顿访问三天，美国财长贝森特表示，原定11月10日到期的釜山贸易休战协议现已延长至2027年1月10日。会谈成果还包括设立中美贸易委员会（Board of Trade）和人工智能事件沟通渠道；两国元首预计将于11月在深圳举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会和12月在迈阿密举行的二十国集团峰会上再次会面。
Europe is less settled. The European Commission issued guidance on 12 January allowing Chinese electric vehicle makers to offer price undertakings, with minimum import prices and annual volume caps, in place of its duties. On 9 October trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said the understanding reached with Beijing on hybrids aimed to halve exports of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and China’s commerce ministry did not disclose the terms. Kruger reads the arrangements as reducing the threat of new EU tariffs on hybrids and expects exports to Europe to keep rising.
与欧洲的关系则没那么明朗。1月12日，欧盟委员会发布指南，允许中国电动汽车出口商提交价格承诺，以最低进口价格和年度数量上限取代现行关税。10月9日，欧盟贸易专员谢夫乔维奇（Maroš Šefčovič）表示，与北京就混合动力汽车达成的谅解，目标是将混合动力和插电式混合动力汽车出口减半；中国商务部未披露谅解的具体条款。克鲁格则认为，这些安排降低了欧盟对混合动力汽车加征新关税的风险，预计对欧出口将继续增长。
Kruger expects the government to meet its 4 percent deficit target, which would bring significant fiscal support in the fourth quarter, and notes that his monthly GDP indicator is at its highest since March. National Day trips reached 826 million, up 6.3 percent on a comparable daily basis, with spending up 4.3 percent to ¥738.4 billion. Growth for the first nine months stands at 4.6 percent, inside this year’s target of 4.5 to 5.0 percent, while fixed-asset investment is down 7.2 percent and September retail sales rose 1.1 percent.
克鲁格预计政府将实现4%的赤字目标，这意味着第四季度将有可观的财政支持，他还指出其月度GDP指标升至3月以来的最高水平。国庆假期国内出游8.26亿人次，按可比日均口径同比增长6.3%，花费7383.75亿元，增长4.3%。前三季度经济增长4.6%，处于今年4.5%至5.0%的目标区间内，而固定资产投资下降7.2%，9月消费品零售额仅增长1.1%。
