China may be triumphing in her fight of Covid-19, but the resulting shackling of the country’s industrial output is an economic disaster of epic proportions, one that may lead to a 2020 growth in GDP of as little as 4.4 percent.
中国可能在抗击新冠肺炎的斗争中取得了胜利，但由此产生的中国工业产出的束缚是一场史诗般的经济灾难，可能导致2020年国内生产总值的增长仅为4.4%。
First the Chinese New Year holiday was lengthened. Then, while firms that could worked from home, so most of China’s factories remained dormant. Not only is the domestic economy set to take a sizeable hit, with China as now the world’s second biggest economy, so there will be a considerable ripple effect elsewhere.
首先，中国新年假期延长了。 然后，虽然公司可以在家工作，但中国的大多数工厂仍然处于休眠状态。 不仅国内经济将受到相当大的打击，中国现在是世界第二大经济体，因此其他地方将产生相当大的涟漪效应。
S&P Global Ratings are the ones behind the pessimistic figures. The well-respected American financier’s credit ratings yesterday forecast that China’s growth pace could drop as low as 4.4 percent, if the Covid-19 outbreak does not peak until April as has been suggested, reported the Financial Times.
标准普尔全球评级是悲观数字的背后。 据《金融时报》报道，这位受人尊敬的美国金融家昨天的信用评级预测，如果新冠肺炎疫情要到4月才达到高峰，中国的增长速度可能会下降到4.4%。
One of the biggest hit sectors is tourism. With people staying home and airlines canceling their flights to and from China, so demand for oil has dropped dramatically.
旅游业是最受欢迎的行业之一。 由于人们呆在家里，航空公司取消了往返中国的航班，所以对石油的需求急剧下降。
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“Global oil demand has been hit hard by the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) and the widespread shutdown of China’s economy. Demand is now expected to fall by 435,000 barrels year on year in the first quarter of 2020, the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years”, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report.
“全球石油需求受到新型冠状病毒（Covid-19）和中国经济普遍停摆的沉重打击。 国际能源机构在其最新的月度报告中表示，预计2020年第一季度需求将同比下降43.5万桶，这是10多年来首次季度收缩。
China is the world’s biggest importer of oil.
中国是世界上最大的石油进口国。
Meanwhile, revenues for the airline industry globally could be down by as much as US$4-5 billion in the first quarter of 2020, said a report from the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).
与此同时，联合国国际民用航空组织（ICAO）的一份报告称，2020年第一季度，全球航空业的收入可能会下降50-50亿美元。
Needless to say, the pool that is Chinese tourists travelling abroad has all but completely dried up. Two of the most popular destinations are nearby Japan and Thailand. The ICAO forecasts that Japan’s tourism revenue could drop by US$1.29 billion in the first quarter of 2020, while that for Thailand might be US$1.15 billion.
不用说，中国游客出国旅游的游泳池几乎完全干涸了。 最受欢迎的两个目的地是附近的日本和泰国。 国际民航组织预测，2020年第一季度，日本的旅游收入可能会下降12.9亿美元，而泰国的旅游业收入可能会下降11.5亿美元。
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Elsewhere, global manufacturing is taking a hit. Apple will be struggling to fulfil orders for iPhones, as Foxconn, its manufacturing partner in China, is facing production delays. In the auto sector, Nissan and Hyundai are experiencing difficulties in obtaining parts from China and as a result have temporarily closed factories abroad, reported the World Economic Forum.
在其他地方，全球制造业正在受到打击。 蘋果將努力完成iPhone的訂單，因為其在中國的制造合作伙伴富士康正面臨生產延遲。 据世界经济论坛报道，在汽车行业，日产和现代在从中国获取零部件方面遇到了困难，因此暂时关闭了海外工厂。
Finally, there is human nature itself, in the form of anxiety-induced reluctance to spend. As the main threat to prosperity in an economic downturn, so the Chinese people are laying off the purchase of big-ticket items. They are opting instead for hygiene-related products and the basics of living.
最后，人性本身，以焦虑引起的不愿意消费的形式出现。 作为经济衰退中繁荣的主要威胁，中国人民正在裁掉大票商品的购买。 相反，他们选择与卫生相关的产品和生活必需品。
As a result, Chinese financial institutions have cut their benchmark lending rate in hope that it can be a shot in the arm for the economy. It was announced yesterday that the 1-year-loan prime rate was being reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 4.05 percent.
因此，中国金融机构下调了基准贷款利率，希望这能为经济带来一击。 昨天宣布，1年期贷款主要利率将降低0.1个百分点，至4.05%。
Back on 12 February, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, forecast a quick recovery for China’s GDP, as factories try to make up for lost time. “The most likely scenario we now view is a V-shaped impact. In other words, sharp decline in economic activities in China, followed by a rapid recovery and a total impact on China relatively contained”, she said.
早在2月12日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁Kristalina Georgieva预测，随着工厂试图弥补损失的时间，中国的国内生产总值将迅速恢复。 “我们现在看到的最有可能的情况是V形撞击。 换句话说，中国经济活动急剧下降，随后迅速复苏，对中国的全面影响相对控制。”她说。
Whether there will still be the jobs to pay for that recovery remains altogether a question for another day.
是否仍有工作可以支付这种复苏的费用，这仍然是另一天的问题。
