A Shop’s Worst Nightmare; Post-Epidemic Retail Down 50 Percent

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If the measure of a city’s economic activity be the sales of women’s shoes, then Nanjing is now performing at 50 percent of its previous retail level, showing that despite numerous incentives lavished upon the populace, much fewer numbers than hoped are willing to spend.

如果衡量一个城市经济活动的标准是女鞋的销量,那么南京目前的零售水平仅为之前的 50%,这表明尽管向民众提供了大量激励措施,但愿意消费的人数远少于预期。

The push for people’s pockets began in the wake of the epidemic. As the number of Covid-19 cases remained at zero, the Nanjing government awarded the equivalent of ¥50 to every citizen in the form of shopping vouchers.

疫情爆发后,人们的钱包就开始被掏空。由于Covid-19病例数保持为零,南京市政府以购物券的形式向每位公民发放了相当于50元人民币的补助金。

In Nanjing’s central business district of Xinjiekou, shopping malls such as Xinbai, The Central, Golden Eagle and others, adjusted their business hours, delaying closing time to 10 pm. The move was timed for just before the annual Tomb Sweeping Day festival, giving shoppers extra time that long weekend to spend their holiday money.

在南京新街口中央商务区,新百、中央、金鹰等购物中心调整营业时间,延迟关门时间至晚上10点。此举是在一年一度的清明节之前进行的,这样可以让购物者在长周末有更多的时间来花掉假期的钱。

Except that didn’t happen. Data has been released showing Xinbai mall store sales have returned to only 50 percent of those from the same weekend last year.

但那并没有发生。公布的数据显示,新百商城门店销售额仅恢复至去年同周末的50%。

A similar picture is emerging elsewhere. In Shanghai, there have been few people browsing the well-stocked shelves of Walmart. Even when online delivery is included, an insider source said, “Sales are not growing at all”, reports the Nikkei Asian Review. The same article also refers to a retail-industry observer, who commented that people are “in money-saving mode”, having lost their jobs or fearful of being next for the chop.

其他地方也出现了类似的情况。在上海,很少有人浏览沃尔玛琳琅满目的货架。据《日经亚洲评论》报道,即使包括在线送货,一位内部消息人士也表示,“销售额根本没有增长”。同一篇文章还提到了一位零售业观察家,他评论说人们处于“省钱模式”,失去了工作或担心成为下一个被砍的人。

Nanjing-based Suning has also reported seeing only half its normal number of customers.

总部位于南京的苏宁电器也报告称,顾客数量仅为正常情况的一半。

In such a grim retail scenario, no wonder sales and promotions have begun popping up. With many students away from their lectures, various retailers have also launched themed promotions for the student market. Adidas and Nike have kicked off promotions for students, while in Nanjing’s Shanxi Lu Department Store, it’s half price across the entire children’s clothing range. In Xinjiekou, Xinbai recently launched its first large-scale promotional activity since the epidemic. Women’s shoes and sports goods are the focus of the sale that runs until mid April.

在如此严峻的零售形势下,难怪促销和促销活动开始涌现。随着不少学生放假,各零售商也针对学生市场推出了主题促销活动。阿迪达斯、耐克已针对学生推出促销活动,南京山西路百货全线童装半价。在新街口,新百近日启动了疫情以来的首场大型促销活动。女鞋和运动用品是促销的重点,一直持续到四月中旬。

Local media, however, are keen to frame the many sales and promotions as evidence of consumer confidence. A Ms. Wang, who works in a first-floor boutique women’s shoe shop in Jiangning’s Golden Eagle told JSChina she received notice on Thursday that she was required to work with two other employees that weekend. Normally, there are only two people on duty.

然而,当地媒体热衷于将许多销售和促销活动视为消费者信心的证据。在江宁金鹰一家精品女鞋店一楼工作的王女士告诉JSChina,她周四接到通知,要求她在周末与另外两名员工一起工作。正常情况下只有两个人值班。

On a national level, China’s Ministry of Commerce has stated that approximately 80 percent of restaurants and more than 90 percent of commercial facilities have resumed business.

在全国范围内,中国商务部表示,约80%的餐馆和90%以上的商业设施已恢复营业。

China’s experience is showing that, while the lockdowns may have lifted and the shops are open again, people do not necessarily immediately run outside and start spending. Many are just beginning to see the financial difficulty they are in, while others have become used to their new way of living. Some even quite like the brave new world.

中国的经验表明,虽然封锁可能已经解除,商店重新开业,但人们不一定会立即跑到外面开始消费。许多人刚刚开始意识到自己面临的经济困难,而另一些人则已经习惯了新的生活方式。有些人甚至非常喜欢美丽新世界。

Back on 12 February, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, predicted a V-shaped recovery for China’s economy. It has now been almost 3 months since the outbreak and that’s not happening, at least not in the retail sector. The V is more of a square root (√), but back to front.

早在 2 月 12 日,国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃 (Kristalina Georgieva) 就预测中国经济将出现 V 型复苏。疫情爆发已经过去近三个月了,但这种情况并没有发生,至少在零售业没有。 V 更像是平方根 (√),但从后到前。

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