Emerging data is painting a picture that China’s enormous epidemic prevention measures are paying off. More patients were pronounced cured and discharged here in Nanjing while figures from multiple sources show the epidemic is slowing.
In the afternoon of 5 February, a total of seven patients in Nanjing met the National Health Commission’s criteria for de isolation and discharge. Among them, six patients were cured and discharged, and one was transferred to a general ward for further rehabilitation, reported Dissemination Nanjing.
Elsewhere, China’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs points out that 4 February marked, “The second consecutive day of decline in newly reported suspected cases [in mainland China]”.
In addition, the Ministry also states that, “Statistics since 28 January suggests that the number of cured cases is overtaking that of fatalities”.
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The Ministry’s numbers are backed up by WorldoMeter, a website that tracks world statistics such as populations and disease outbreaks.
The WorldoMeter data shows that yesterday’s numbers represent a 14.9 percent increase in fatalities on the previous day. The number is also the lowest percentage increase since data was first released. Looking back as far as 24 January, the percentage increase in total fatalities each day is in near constant decline (64.0, 36.6, 42.9, 32.5, 24.5, 28.8, 20.2, 21.6, 17.3, 19.1, 17.7, 15.5).
According to WorldoMeter, at time of writing, 19-nCoV is now affecting 28 countries and territories around the world. WorldoMeter is an independent company with no political, governmental or corporate affiliation.
All reasons to be a little on the cheerful side. Yet, this is no time to let down our guard as we are still quite some way from being in the clear.
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UK peer-reviewed general medical journal, The Lancet, has conducted a thorough study to estimate of the size of the epidemic. The study aimed to forecast the extent of the epidemic’s domestic and global public health risk, accounting for social and non-pharmaceutical intervention.
Assuming no reduction in transmissibility, the study finds that coronavirus cases shall peak around April, 2020. It also predicts that peaks for local epidemics in cities all over mainland China would lag by 1–2 weeks.
The study further found that, “If transmissibility was reduced by 25 percent in all cities domestically, then both the growth rate and magnitude of local epidemics would be substantially reduced; the epidemic peak would be delayed by about 1 month and its magnitude reduced by about 50 percent”.
Funding for the study was provided by the Health and Medical Research Fund (Hong Kong, China). Founded in 1823, The Lancet is often regarded as the world’s most prestigious medical journal.
