While China has held its Third Plenum that is intended as a road map for the country’s next round of development spanning economics, political and social spheres, its intents for many China watchers, or indeed most of its intended, are both vague and complex.
It is traditional at this time after the latest meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee to hear a resounding tone of disapproval from virtually all on the periphery who care or dare to comment on the country’s new course as announced by the great helmsman of the day. This Third Plenum is no exception. Yet amid the usual rhetoric highlighting the inevitable gulf between what is promised and delivered, this time around comparisons are being made with the course of economic development plotted by former premier Deng Xiaoping known as the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPCC held from 18th to 22nd December, 1978, that was to lead to China’s “open door”.
The immediate reasons are obvious. There is little room for being vague when it comes to how many children one can have. What many are now calling the “two child policy” is indeed a large shift from what has been the supposed status quo for more than thirty years; while official estimates may vary, there are undoubtedly very significant numbers of couples in which one, not both, are single children themselves. The little Emperors are in for more than a little sibling rivalry.
With the Third Plenum, commentators are agreed on one thing; that President Xi Jinping is consolidating power in himself. His “the buck stops here” attitude can be interpreted as the only option for maintaining the not inconsiderable reforms he has put in motion during his first year in Zhongnanhai. Most notable is the crackdown on corruption among government and Party officials, something that Xi realizes is crucial to maintain economic development amid a growingly restless social environment. Online venting that reveals the intolerance of netizens toward despicable official behaviour may be one thing; that it lead to social unrest and economic consequences may simply be a natural progression.
Elsewhere, the Third Plenum further appears to paint a picture of the future in which markets are free to operate without the influence of the all powerful state. While it is true to say such a utopia may indeed lie in a galaxy far far away, Beijing is all but promising that the state will get out of the way in cases where its involvement is neither essential nor productive. Again, the Plenum has dodged tradition by being surprisingly specific; expect less governmental interference in the sectors of energy, the environment and resource allocation (as in land distribution; they own it all anyway so what does it matter) that if successful can be rolled out to other parts of the economy.
Most revealing of all however, may be the language of the communique of the Plenum itself. In the past, China’s leaders have been fond of creating new nouns to describe their directives and the degree to which implementation may be expected. “Four Dishes and One Soup” was one such term coined earlier this year to indicate the level of frugality expected by government employees and Party officials. The Third Plenum is different in so far as adjectives have now replaced such awkward linguistic creations; note the addition of the word “decisive” within “the market play the decisive role in resource allocation”, representing an excerpt of the communique from the Plenum.
While it is tempting to be positive about such signs that show the Party (press ganged into action by Mr. Xi) are serious about change, make no mistake; the inner sanctum in Beijing is still in charge. The government remains answerable to the CPCC. While that will unlikely ever change, with The Third Plenum what is in essence being said is that if the semi-free market and indeed society itself can behave and moderate themselves in an appropriate manner, then the State will have little reason to interfere.
