Saturday is the big day; the day China will host the first large international event under the new Chinese leadership. With Mr Xi’s different approach to diplomatics, it is set to be an interesting convention.
1. The air will be fresh.
A majority of pre-APECs reports are focusing on the appalling air quality in Beijing and the country’s frenzied attempts to pull off a serious air cleaning to adequately welcome the world’s leaders (otherwise they might find themselves subjected to suspicions of attempted homicide to rid themselves of their most serious opponents). Prior to and for the duration of the summit, construction work in the entire city has had to come to a complete halt; surely to immeasurable joy of the city’s noise-plagued residents.
Unsurprisingly, factories in the surrounding areas of Hebei province, one of the most dramatic factors causing the serious smog in the capital, have been ordered to shut down; a classical air cleaning tactic by the government. The restrictions are far reaching, as far as 200km outside of Beijing, where workers are now packing their bags for an unexpected, but probably rather welcome, extra holiday. After all, what’s a small dent in this year’s GDP compared to the preservation of the innocent lungs of international politicians.
Of course, where China is concerned, there needs to be just a hint of wackiness, and so Beijing’s have been forbidden to register any marriages between 7th and 12th November, in a bid to solve the city’s traffic issues, another major contributor to the overall pollution. (One cannot help but wonder whether public barbecuing has also been banned, as it was in December 2013 during Nanjing’s Big Smog).
Naturally, the above is only one of a host of restrictions where traffic is concerned; the usual tactics being restricting cars with certain license plates from driving on certain days; the extent and strictness of the current measures to ensure a breathable environment throughout the event has even surpassed those of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Individuals present in Beijing at the time will have enjoyed the holiday for their lungs, and so will, undoubtedly, China’s current residents once the effect of the measures kicks in. While there have been a number of reports suggesting bad pollution in the coming days, it would be surprising if the administration did not manage to turn it around just in time (it might have just been a case of expectation management, anyway). After all, when it comes to putting on a good show for the international community, China has never failed to disappoint.
2. China will play happy family.
China’s tense relationship to its neighbours has been a constant subject of the international and national media for a long time running (it won’t surprise that the nature of the coverage differs rather drastically depending on nationality and political allegiance). Japan’s post-war behaviour and territoriality conflicts over those few rocks in the sea known poetically as Fishing Islands, Vietnamese and Indian border altercations, Taiwanese sovereignty debacles; under Xi’s new approach (“who needs diplomacy when you can flex your muscles?”) there have been clashes left, right and center.
Yet, all is conveniently forgotten as the leaders of the opposing parties meet on Saturday to discuss how they can work together to make the region prosper economically. Due to the high-context, non-confrontational culture, which prevails in the East, the world will undoubtedly witness a happy family on the Asian side throughout the following days. To make completely sure no drama ensues, China’s leaders have already made public statements welcoming Japan and have met with the Vietnamese leadership in an amicable exchange.
3. The Superpowers might not.
Heads might roll on the other hand, as Putin meets Obama and Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott; the latter has already promised to confront the Russian head of state over what he sees as the murder of Australian citizens when Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over the Ukraine. The two former enemies of the Cold War will have their own battle to fight over the Ukraine as well; none of them could be described as shy of confrontation. It is therefore with a mixture of apprehension and fascination that the international community awaits the showdown in Beijing. It will be very interesting to see, how China will handle such brazen conflict.
4. China will attempt to take anti-corruption campaign to the next level.
The anti-corruption fight has been sweeping through China, taking down politicians of minor and major importance on its way. Yet, it seems, the leadership is not yet satisfied with its major clean out of the past year. Too many corrupt individuals have saved their skins by transferring their assets as well as their person to another country; leading the list of corrupt official harbourers are Australia, the US and Canada.
The losses faced by China due to the escape of economic criminals are substantial.The Global Financial Integrity group, an organization that tracks illicit financial flows, has released an estimate that states approximately $1.08 trillion of illegal money has been shipped out of the country between 2002 to 2011. China is therefore not going to miss this opportunity to try and push the aforementioned three countries to commit to support in terms of extradition of criminals and returning of stolen funds.
5. Participants will squabble over partnerships.
The major topic of this year’s summit will be the showdown between two economic systems of cooperation; the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP is currently in existence, US-led, and excludes China from its midst; it aims to abolish the type of market restrictions upon which the Middle Kingdom’s economy still heavily relies. The FTAAP on the other hand, is a new attempt at economic integration led by the Chinese, who maintain that the TPP does not communicate with other economic partnerships in the region, namely the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is ASEAN-led and does not include the US.
Accusations have been made, that the FTAAP is purely a political tool used by China to undermine the US influence, while on the Chinese side any such notion is dismissed as untrue. The underlying political battle will rage on as both countries tried to gain the upper hand in the agreement game.
6. Obama and Co won’t be missing out on their friend’s status updates.
According to Singaporean Chinese-language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao, Facebook, the BBC and other websites, which are generally blocked by the Great Chinese Firewall, will be made accessible to a small minority during the meeting. Obama will be glad to know, whatever goes down with Putin or the Chinese at the summit, at least he won’t have to miss out on Mr. Hagel’s status updates.
